Crystal Ball
“If you don’t know where you’re going, any direction will do.” Most of the vocal forces in healthcare today seem headed in the direction of spending more money in the future. Both Obama and Clinton advocate expanding health insurance to the currently uninsured, tho with slightly different approaches.
The Commonwealth Fund recently published a proposal to expand Medicare and Medicaid to cover the uninsured. In a fascinating slight of hand, they assert that the costs of their proposal would be partially offset by lower administrative costs. Of course, they neglected to mention that the administrative costs for the uninsured are currently zero. But this does resurrect the myth that the government can provide health insurance with a lower administrative cost than a private, for-profit insurance company. While it’s true there are economies of scale (Medicare is huge), the government totally lacks the motivation to control costs. Furthermore, Medicare has financial problems now, and it’s not likely they would welcome more obligations.
Nevertheless, it does seem likely that, come the revolution, we will see some proposal(s) to expand health insurance to the uninsured. This will cost money--probably more than covering the currently insured, due partly to pent-up demand. Any such plan will almost certainly include a mandate for everyone to play. Can’t have the healthy invincibles opting out. The California plan would have been an interesting model if the falling economy hadn’t sunk it prior to launch. Everything costs money.
Speaking of which, the American public is focusing more on money these days than healthcare. Problems paying for ______ (fill in the blank) top the list of concerns. Not surprisingly, those with less income suffer the most. Of those earning under $30 K per year, 63% had “serious problems paying for gas.” Stay tuned, folks, it will get worse. I don’t personally have that problem, but then I make more than $30 K, walk to work, don’t drive much, and my car gets 65+ miles per gallon.
The Institute for Healthcare improvement has launched a new initiative, “Triple Aim” that includes:
- Improve the health of the population. This is an important and welcome focus on public health. Too many pundits point to statistics on longevity, infant mortality, etc. as an indictment of U.S. healthcare, whereas these are really public health issues. Improving the health of the population will decrease the demand for healthcare. Taking one more step back, improving air and water quality will improve the health of the population. This seems axiomatic, but many fail to make the connection. Try getting the EPA to admit that coal fired power plants will adversely affect polar bears. Or conversely, that reducing emissions will improve the health of those living downwind.
- Enhance the Healthcare Experience of Individuals. Partly, this means improving customer service--common courtesy--by healthcare providers. But partly other things, like efficiency of time, coordination of care, reducing errors, etc. The interesting part is that almost all of this is free or actually pays a dividend. You just have to want to do it.
- Reduce the per capita cost for the population. At last (perhaps), someone is hinting at efficiency. In most cases, they are talking only about reducing the amount of healthcare provided to the population. Hopefully, IHI will also address the cost of individual healthcare services. We referenced Porter and Teisberg’s book in the last post. Effective competition would go a long way toward achieving these IHI goals, but it would require a major restructuring of our payment system.
Mirror, Mirror on the wall
What’s that in my crystal ball?
A fuzzy picture’s all I see
Of what the healthcare plan will be.