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      <title>Statistical Thinking to Improve Quality</title>
      <link>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/</link>
      <description>This blog examines the use of data analyses and statistical tools in a framework of statistical thinking to improve quality.  The following principles form the basis for statistical thinking:

     All work occurs in a system of interconnected processes,
    Variation exists in all processes, and 
    Understanding and reducing variation are keys to success.

Statistical thinking significantly improves the effectiveness of data analyses and statistical tools.</description>
      <language>en</language>
      <copyright>Copyright 2009</copyright>
      <lastBuildDate>Sat, 28 Mar 2009 11:29:45 -0600</lastBuildDate>
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      <docs>http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss</docs> 

            <item>
         <title>Exploratory Data Analysis: Stratification</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>The primary purpose Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) is to identify the key variables that affect the quality measures.&nbsp;&nbsp; Two principles, mentioned by De Mast and Trip (2007), are helpful in identifying these variables.&nbsp; They are:</p><ul><li><div>Display the distribution of the data</div></li><li>Display the distribution within individual stratum</li></ul><p>Chang and Lu (1995) provide an example illustrating these principles.&nbsp;&nbsp; A steel sheet metal manufacturer had customers complaining about uneven thickness.&nbsp; The specification was 4.5 &plusmn; .5 mm.&nbsp;&nbsp; The production manager had data collected from 120 sheets giving the thickness measurements on the left, middle and right sides of the sheets.&nbsp;&nbsp; Employees selected five sheets at shift times of 0900, 1100, 1400 and 1700 over a period of five days.&nbsp;&nbsp; The histogram appearing below shows 13% of the sheet thickness measurements below the lower specification limit of 4.0 mm.&nbsp;&nbsp; Also, the mean is lower than 4.5 mm.&nbsp;</p><p><img height="320" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/SheetThicknessHisto.jpg" width="480" border="0" /></p><p>After discussions with shop-floor personnel, they stratified by position on the sheet and by time.&nbsp;&nbsp; Histograms for the two stratifications appear below.&nbsp;&nbsp; The stratification by position did not show distributions much different than the aggregate distribution.&nbsp;&nbsp; However, the stratification by time showed higher frequencies of thin measurements at 1100 and 1700. &nbsp;Twenty four of the 26 values in the histograms below 4 mm, 24 of them were at 1100 and 1700.&nbsp; </p><p><img height="320" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/SheetThicknessHistoPos.jpg" width="480" border="0" /></p><p><img height="320" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/SheetThicknessHistoTime.jpg" width="480" border="0" /></p><p>Discussions with shop-floor personnel identified mold wear out, build up of chips in a work holding device, and operator fatigue as possible causes.&nbsp;&nbsp; The corrective action was to take a 10 minute break at 1030 and 1630 each day and have maintenance performed during the breaks.&nbsp;&nbsp; The corrective action produced a substantial reduction in thin sheets.</p><p><strong>References</strong></p><ol><li><strong><div>Chang, P.-L. and K.-H. Lu (1995). &quot;The Construction of the Stratification Procedure for Quality Improvement.&quot; <u>Qualilty Engineering</u> <strong>8</strong>(2): 237-247.</div></strong>Chang, P.-L. and K.-H. Lu (1995). &quot;The Construction of the Stratification Procedure for Quality Improvement.&quot;  (2): 237-247.</li><li>De Mast, Jeroen and Albert Trip (2007). &ldquo;Exploratory Data Analysis in Quality-Improvement Projects&rdquo;, <u>Journal of Quality Technology</u>, 39(4): 301-311.</li></ol>]]></description>
         <link>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2009/03/exploratory_data_analysis_stra.html</link>
         <guid>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2009/03/exploratory_data_analysis_stra.html</guid>
         <category>Exploratory Data Analysis</category>
         <pubDate>Sat, 28 Mar 2009 11:29:45 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Exploratory Data Analysis: Limitations</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>De Mast and Trip (2007) specify that the purpose of Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) is to identify the dependent (Y) and independent (X) variables that may help understand or solve a quality problem.&nbsp;&nbsp; However, they point out that EDA can only identify variables that vary in the collected data set. &nbsp;If the EDA can not identify key variables affecting the system performance, available options include:</p><ol><li>Collecting additional data and revising the variables recorded</li><li>Analyzing the available information, designing experiments, and conducting the experimental design</li></ol><p><strong>Option 1<br /></strong>The Pease Industries example, described in the posting on <a title="March 2008 Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/03/" target="_self">3/4/2008</a>, illustrates the first option.&nbsp;&nbsp; A team wanted to reduce an 11% defect rate in glass inserts for a wooden entry door. &nbsp;They thought that humidity and temperature variations were the cause.&nbsp;&nbsp; They collected data and did a regression analysis where the dependent variable was the number of defects and the independent variables were temperature and humidity.&nbsp;&nbsp; They found no correlation.&nbsp;&nbsp; Then the team collected additional data, and they examined defect occurrence as related to part type, monthly occurrence and day of the week.&nbsp;&nbsp; They found that the defect rate varied with the day of the week.&nbsp; After investigating why the day of the week was important, they determined that dirty molds caused the elevated defect rate.</p><p><strong>Option 2<br /></strong>The posting on <a title="February 2008 Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/02/" target="_self">2/28/2008</a> describes a case study illustrating the second option above.&nbsp;&nbsp; A company was experiencing excessive variation in its grinding operation.&nbsp;&nbsp; A team conducted a brainstorming session to identify key factors causing the variation in the grinding operation.&nbsp;&nbsp; The brainstorming session produced a Cause &amp; Effect diagram.&nbsp;&nbsp; The posting on <a title="September 2008 Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/09/" target="_self">9/15/2008</a> describes an experimental design conducted to determine which factors were most significant. &nbsp;The posting on <a title="October 2008 Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/10/" target="_self">10/16/2008</a> describes the analysis of the experimental results.&nbsp; The company improved the grinding process performance index from .49 to 1.25. </p><p><strong>References</strong></p><ol><li><div>De Mast, Jeroen and Albert Trip (2007). &ldquo;Exploratory Data Analysis in Quality-Improvement Projects&rdquo;, <u>Journal of Quality Technology</u>, 39(4): 301-311.</div></li></ol>]]></description>
         <link>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2009/02/exploratory_data_analysis_limi.html</link>
         <guid>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2009/02/exploratory_data_analysis_limi.html</guid>
         <category>Exploratory Data Analysis</category>
         <pubDate>Sun, 15 Feb 2009 19:07:40 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Exploratory Data Analysis: Key Steps</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>De Mast and Trip (2007) list the following three steps in performing Exploratory Data Analysis.</p><ol><li>Display the Data</li><li>Identify salient features</li><li>Interpret salient features</li></ol><p>The resin output variation example, <a title="March Posting" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/03/" target="_self">3/25/2008</a> posting illustrates these steps. &nbsp;&nbsp;The Ricoh team constructed a <a title="Histogram" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/ResinHisto.jpg" target="_self">histogram</a> of the output quantity (<strong>Display the data</strong>), noticed the bimodal nature of the output quantity (<strong>Identify salient features</strong>), and this bimodal distribution suggested that the output distributions from lines A and B were different (<strong>Interpret salient features</strong>).&nbsp;&nbsp; Histograms of <a title="Line A Histogram" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/ResinHistoA.jpg" target="_self">line A</a> and <a title="Line B Histogram" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/ResinHistoB.jpg" target="_self">line B</a> output confirmed this conclusion.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Another salient feature of the histograms was the excessive variation in output quantity.&nbsp;&nbsp; This feature motivated establishment of lower and upper limits and a target value.</p><p><strong>References</strong></p><ol><li><div>De Mast, Jeroen and Albert Trip (2007). &ldquo;Exploratory Data Analysis in Quality-Improvement Projects&rdquo;, <u>Journal of Quality Technology</u>, 39(4): 301-311.</div></li></ol>]]></description>
         <link>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2009/02/exploratory_data_analysis_key.html</link>
         <guid>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2009/02/exploratory_data_analysis_key.html</guid>
         <category>Exploratory Data Analysis</category>
         <pubDate>Tue, 10 Feb 2009 13:29:05 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Exploratory Data Analysis: Resin Output Variation Example</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>The postings on <a title="March, 2008 Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/03/" target="_blank">3/21/2008, 3/25/2008, 3/28/2008</a> and <a title="April, 2008 Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/04/" target="_self">4/1/2008</a> present the Resin Output Variation Example to illustrate Statistical Thinking and the Hoerl-Snee Process Improvement Strategy.&nbsp;&nbsp; This example also makes extensive use of Exploratory Data Analysis.</p><p>Ricoh&rsquo;s Numazu plant made raw material used as ingredients for copy machine toner.&nbsp;&nbsp; The company had a&nbsp;team which monitored the process in order to achieve continual quality improvement.&nbsp;&nbsp; </p><ul><li>The team examined a <strong><a title="Resin Yield Run Chart" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/ResinYield.jpg" target="_self">Resin Yield Run Chart</a></strong> and noted that the yield ratio sometimes exceeded 1.0 which was theoretically impossible.&nbsp;&nbsp; The 3/21/2008 posting includes this run chart.&nbsp;&nbsp; The run chart indicated the presence of an assignable cause which they eliminated by preventing a drop in air pressure.&nbsp; However, yields still exceeded 1.0.&nbsp; They decided that this result was due to variation and suspected that this variation would degrade finished product quality.&nbsp;&nbsp; The team started an effort to discover the source of variation and to make changes to eliminate it. </li><li>The team collected output quantity data and constructed <strong>histograms</strong>.&nbsp;&nbsp; The posting on <a title="March, 2008 Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/03/" target="_self">3/25/2008</a> shows the histograms.&nbsp;&nbsp; The <strong><a title="Overall Output Quantity Histogram" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/ResinHisto.jpg" target="_self">overall output quantity histogram</a></strong> clearly shows two peaks indicating a combination of two component distributions.&nbsp;&nbsp; After the second batch processing step, the process splits a batch into two parts which are processed on two separate lines, i.e., line A and line B.&nbsp;&nbsp; The posting on 3/25/2008 shows <strong>histograms </strong>for the output quantities of the two lines.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Comparing the <a title="Line A Histogram" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/ResinHistoA.jpg" target="_self">line A</a> and <a title="Line B Histogram" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/ResinHistoB.jpg" target="_self">line B</a> histograms shows&nbsp;that the two lines have different distributions for their output quantities. </li><li>Next the team constructed a Cause &amp; Effect Diagram to show potential causes of the output quantity variation and the differences between the two lines.&nbsp;&nbsp; The 3/25/2008 posting presents this <a title="Cause & Effect Diagram" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/ResinCauseEffect.jpg" target="_self">Cause &amp; Effect Diagram</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The posting on 3/28/2008 describes the identification and elimination of two variation causes.&nbsp; They investigated the procedure for dividing the resin after the second processing step.&nbsp;&nbsp; They discovered that some material remained in the reaction tank after sending material to the two lines.&nbsp; This mean that line B had less input and thus less output than line A.&nbsp;&nbsp; They changed the dividing procedure and found no significant difference between the output quantities of the two lines.&nbsp; </li><li>The second potential cause described on the 3/28/2008 posting involved the solvent feed ratio.&nbsp;&nbsp; They constructed a <strong><a title="Scatter Plogt" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/ResinScatter.jpg" target="_self">scatter plot</a></strong> showing that increasing solvent feed ratio was correlated with increasing output.&nbsp;&nbsp; This correlation was inconsistent with the team&rsquo;s understanding of the physical process.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; They found that the ratio measurement was affected by the time the solvent was in the tank.&nbsp;&nbsp; They changed the procedure to insure the solvent had stabilized prior to measurement.&nbsp;&nbsp; Examination of a <strong><a title="Control Chart" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/ResinControlChart.jpg" target="_self">control chart</a></strong> showed that the variation in output quantity was still excessive.</li><li>The posting on 4/1/2008 describes the elimination of a third cause, and the posting shows a <strong><a title="Control Chart" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/ResinControlChart.jpg" target="_self">control chart</a></strong>.&nbsp;&nbsp; This control chart clearly shows a significant reduction in output variation. &nbsp;</li></ul><p>The exploratory data analysis included examination of four different graphical displays.&nbsp; They are a run chart, histograms, a scatter plot, and several control charts.&nbsp; De Mast and Trip (2007) points out that Good (1983); Hoaglin, Mosteller et al (2000); and Bisgaard (1996) note that graphical presentations are preferred in Exploratory Data Analysis.&nbsp;&nbsp; They are more effective is showing an individual what he did not expect to see. </p><p><strong>References</strong></p><strong><ol><li><div>Bisgaard, S. (1996). &quot;Qualilty Quandaries: The Importance of Graphics in Problem Solving and Detective Work.&quot; <u>Quality Engineering</u> <strong>9</strong>(1): 157-162.</div></li><li>De Mast, Jeroen and Albert Trip (2007). &ldquo;Exploratory Data Analysis in Quality-Improvement Projects&rdquo;, <u>Journal of Quality Technology</u>, 39(4): 301-311.</li><li>Good, I. J. (1983). &quot;The Philosophy of Exploratory Data Analysis.&quot; <u>Philosophy of Science</u> <strong>50</strong>(2): 283-295.</li><li>Hoaglin, D. C., F. Mosteller, et al. (2000). <u>Understanding Robust and Exploratory Data Analysis</u>. New York, John Wiley &amp; Sons, Inc.<br /></li></ol></strong>]]></description>
         <link>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/12/exploratory_data_analysis_resi.html</link>
         <guid>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/12/exploratory_data_analysis_resi.html</guid>
         <category>Exploratory Data Analysis</category>
         <pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2008 09:23:54 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Exploratory Data Analysis: Defect Reduction Example</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>Bisgaard (2006) gives us an example where Exploratory Data Analysis leads us to narrow the scope of the quality improvement investigation.&nbsp;&nbsp; The example involves the production of small outboard motors by an assembly line.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Monthly quality reports showed an unacceptable number of defective motors that caused costly rework.&nbsp;&nbsp; The Vice President of Manufacturing formed a team for the purpose of reducing the number of defects.&nbsp;&nbsp; </p><p>The first task performed by the team was to flowchart the assembly line.&nbsp;&nbsp; This is consistent with the first step in the Hoerl-Snee Process Improvement Strategy (See the posting on 4/8/2008).&nbsp;&nbsp; After the base motors were painted and dried, the motors traveled on a ten station line for the purpose of installing accessory components.&nbsp;&nbsp; These accessory components included the carburetor, brackets, the propeller, and electrical systems.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Next, the team examined tables specifying defects and their type.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The team found the tables difficult to analyze.&nbsp;&nbsp; To assist the analysis the team constructed Pareto charts specifying the defects by type of defect.&nbsp;&nbsp; For example, missing fasteners, loose fasteners, and missing operations.&nbsp; These Pareto Charts did not suggest principal causes. &nbsp;The team decided to categorize the defects by the station on the line where the defect originated.&nbsp;&nbsp; For example, a loose fastener on the carburetor, the defect originated at station 3.&nbsp;&nbsp; An incorrectly mounted spark plug wire would have occurred at station 9.&nbsp; The Pareto Chart categorizing defects by station appears below.</p><p><img height="321" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/Pareto_Station.jpg" width="480" border="0" /></p><p>The team focused on station 9.&nbsp; The workers on the line revealed that design of the motors had changed leaving station 9 with more work than the other stations.&nbsp;&nbsp; The team redesigned the assembly line reducing the work load at station 9.&nbsp;&nbsp; A number of other changes were made such as improved lighting.&nbsp;&nbsp; The result was a dramatic reduction in the occurrence of defects.</p><p>De Mast and Trip (2007) claim that this example illustrates the use of exploratory data analysis change the focus of the problem from &ldquo;too many defects&rdquo; to &ldquo;too many defects from station 9&rdquo;.&nbsp; They state that the example illustrates the use of exploratory data analysis to identify a KPOV.&nbsp;&nbsp; </p><p>My viewpoint is that this example illustrates the identification of a KPIV.&nbsp;&nbsp; That is, the assembly line station.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Admittedly, the next phase of the improvement effort was clearly more focused on station 9.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; We must remember that quality improvement is often an iterative process.&nbsp;&nbsp; That is, successive Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) cycles.&nbsp;&nbsp; Identifying a KPIV on a cycle may result in that KPIV being a KPOV on the next cycle.</p><strong>References<br /></strong><ol><li>Bisgaard, S. (1996). &quot;Qualilty Quandaries: The Importance of Graphics in Problem Solving and Detective Work.&quot; <u>Quality Engineering</u> <strong>9</strong>(1): 157-162.</li><li>De Mast, Jeroen and Albert Trip (2007). &ldquo;Exploratory Data Analysis in Quality-Improvement Projects&rdquo;, <u>Journal of Quality Technology</u>, 39(4): 301-311.</li></ol>]]></description>
         <link>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/12/exploratory_data_analysis_defe.html</link>
         <guid>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/12/exploratory_data_analysis_defe.html</guid>
         <category>Exploratory Data Analysis</category>
         <pubDate>Mon, 15 Dec 2008 20:18:47 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Exploratory Data Analysis: Molding Operation Example</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>The purpose of Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) is to generate hypotheses or clues that guide us in improving quality or process performance. &nbsp;Breyfogle (2003, pgs. 10-11) views Six Sigma as a murder mystery where we use a structured approach to uncover clues that lead us to improve process outputs.&nbsp;&nbsp; These clues are Key Process Input Variables (KPIVS) and process improvement strategies.&nbsp; As an example, he considers the process of traveling to work where the Key Process Output Variable (KPOV) is the arrival time.&nbsp;&nbsp; Examples of KPIVs are the setting of our alarm clock and our departure time.&nbsp;&nbsp; An alternative process improvement strategy might be a different travel route that is less subject to variation during congested time periods.&nbsp;&nbsp; Then, the route selected is another KPIV, and the travel time along that route is a function of both the route and departure time.&nbsp;&nbsp; Exploratory Data Analysis helps us identify these KPIVs. </p><p>De Mast and Trip (2007) state that the purpose of EDA from a quality improvement project viewpoint is to identify the dependent (Y) and independent (X) variables that may help understand or solve the quality problem.&nbsp;&nbsp; The dependent Y variables are KPOVs, and the independent X variables are KPIVs.&nbsp; Leitnaker (2000) gives an example of EDA to identify KPIVs.&nbsp; The example is a molding operation where:</p><ul><li>Yields are erratic</li><li>Parts are produced that do not meet specifications</li><li>Shipment schedules are not consistently met</li></ul><p>A team studied a molding operation supplying plastic switches to industrial customers for use in assembled control pads.&nbsp;&nbsp; The operation has eight machines, each machine has two molds, and each mold has four cavities.&nbsp; To investigate the process capability, the team took a sample of size 5 from the output of one machine every 4 hours.&nbsp;&nbsp; The following control chart displays the results for a critical dimension.</p><p><img height="150" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/Leitnaker_1.JPG" width="240" align="left" border="0" /></p><p>The process is in control, and the range chart supported this conclusion.&nbsp; But the variation is large.&nbsp; Next the team investigated the effect of the cavities and molds on the measured dimension.&nbsp;&nbsp; To do this, they sampled one part from each of the four cavities of the two molds on one machine.&nbsp;&nbsp; Breaking down the data by cavity and mold is an example of stratification.&nbsp; Control charts for the individual cavities and molds showed that all&nbsp;cavities and molds appear to be in control.&nbsp;However, mold 2 cavities have larger averages than mold 1 cavities, and the averages for the cavities increases with cavity number.&nbsp; The following figure clearly shows this pattern.</p><p><img height="217" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/Leitnaker_3.jpg" width="303" align="left" border="0" /></p><p>The figure&nbsp;leads us to identify mold and cavities numbers as KPIVs.&nbsp;&nbsp; <span>The exploratory data analysis produced a clue which generated a search for the reasons that molds and cavities produced different average dimensions.&nbsp; </span>The team can proceed to reduce the variability in the measured dimension by reducing the differences in averages for the molds and cavities.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>References</strong></p><ol><li><div>Breyfogle, F. W. (2003). <u>Implementing Six Sigma</u>. Hoboken, New Jersey, John Wiley &amp; Sons, Inc.</div></li><li>De Mast, Jeroen and Albert Trip (2007). &ldquo;Exploratory Data Analysis in Quality-Improvement Projects&rdquo;, <u>Journal of Quality Technology</u>, 39(4): 301-311.</li><li>Leitnaker, M. G. (2000). <u>Using the Power of Statistical Thinking</u>, Special Publication of the ASQ Statistics Division, Summer 2000.<br /></li></ol>]]></description>
         <link>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/11/exploratory_data_analysis_mold.html</link>
         <guid>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/11/exploratory_data_analysis_mold.html</guid>
         <category>Exploratory Data Analysis</category>
         <pubDate>Wed, 26 Nov 2008 11:47:15 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Exploratory and Confirmatory Data Analyses</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>This posting describes the difference between Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) and Confirmatory Data Analysis (CDA).&nbsp; Tukey (1977) distinguished between EDA and CDA.&nbsp;&nbsp; Confirmatory Data Analysis tests hypotheses and produces estimates with a specified precision.&nbsp;&nbsp; Regression analysis, Analysis of Variance, and Hypothesis Tests are examples of Confirmatory Data Analysis.&nbsp; Confirmatory Data Analysis requires hypotheses or assumptions to consider and evaluate. </p><p>Exploratory Data Analysis makes few assumptions, and its purpose is to suggest hypotheses and assumptions.&nbsp;&nbsp; Consider the OEM manufacturer described in the posting on 1/30/2008.&nbsp; The company was experiencing customer complaints.&nbsp;&nbsp; A team wanted to identify and remove causes of these complaints.&nbsp;&nbsp; They asked customers for usage data so the team could calculate defect rates.&nbsp;&nbsp; This started an Exploratory Data Analysis.&nbsp;&nbsp; The team plotted a control chart, and these charts identified a high defect rate in October, 1991.&nbsp;&nbsp; The investigation established that a supplier used the wrong raw material.&nbsp;&nbsp; Discussions with the supplier and team members motivated further analysis of raw material, and its composition.&nbsp;&nbsp; This decision to analyze raw material completed the Exploratory Data Analysis.&nbsp;&nbsp; The Exploratory Data Analysis used both data analysis and process knowledge possessed by team members.&nbsp; The supplier and company conducted a series of designed experiments which identified an improved raw material composition. &nbsp;&nbsp;Using this composition, the defect rate improved from .023% to .004%.&nbsp;&nbsp; The experimental design and its analysis was Confirmatory Data Analysis.&nbsp; Note that the experimental design required a hypothesis generated by the Exploratory Data Analysis.</p><p>Tukey states that EDA is detective work.&nbsp;&nbsp; He uses the criminal justice process as an analogue to illustrate the roles of EDA and CDA.&nbsp;&nbsp; A detective investigating a crime needs both tools and understanding.&nbsp;&nbsp; The detectives and other investigative units search for and produce evidence.&nbsp; The juries and judges evaluate the evidence&rsquo;s strength.&nbsp;&nbsp; Exploratory Data Analysis uncovers statements or hypotheses for Confirmatory Data Analysis to consider.&nbsp;&nbsp; Experimental design and regression modeling are more effective if Exploratory Data Analysis uncovers precise statements or hypotheses.&nbsp;&nbsp; Admittedly, one can conduct experiments searching for hypotheses; however, our viewpoint is that preliminary Exploratory Data Analyses may reduce the costs of these experiments.</p><p>Exploratory and Confirmatory Data Analyses can be thought of as part of statistical thinking.&nbsp;&nbsp; De Mast and Trip (2007) present principles for more effective EDA in quality improvement projects.&nbsp; We will examine results from their paper in future postings.&nbsp;&nbsp; Their paper won the Nelson award for the paper having the greatest immediate impact for practitioners published during 2007 in the <u>Journal of Quality Technology</u>.</p><p><strong>References<br /></strong></p><ol><li>John W. Tukey (1977). <u>Exploratory Data Analysis</u>, Addison-Wesley Publishing Co.</li><li>de Mast, Jeroen and Albert Trip (2007). &ldquo;Exploratory Data Analysis in Quality-Improvement Projects&rdquo;, <u>Journal of Quality Technology</u>, 39(4): 301-311.</li></ol>]]></description>
         <link>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/11/exploratory_and_confirmatory_d.html</link>
         <guid>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/11/exploratory_and_confirmatory_d.html</guid>
         <category>Exploratory Data Analysis</category>
         <pubDate>Wed, 19 Nov 2008 15:00:53 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Design of Experiments: Grinding Process Example (Part 4)</title>
         <description><![CDATA[This posting continues the grinding process case study (Gigo, 2008) that illustrates the use of design and analysis of experiments to reduce common-cause variation.&nbsp; We present the results of the analysis of the experiments specified in the <a title="September Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/09/" target="_self">9/18/2008 posting (Part 2)</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><p>The following figures display graphically the relative significance of the six factors, i.e., A, B, C, D, AB and AC.&nbsp;&nbsp; The figures show the average response at the factor low (-1) and high (+1) values.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Factors B and C are not nearly as significant as factors A and D since the average responses of B and C are nearly the same at their low and high values.&nbsp; That is, a change in the factor levels for factors B and C has little effect on the response.&nbsp; Also, the interaction factor AC is more significant than the interaction factor AB.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p><img height="160" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/Gijo_FactorA_B.jpg" width="480" border="0" /></p><p><img height="160" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/Gijo_FactorC_D.jpg" width="480" border="0" /></p><p><img height="160" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/Gijo_FactorAB_AC.jpg" width="480" border="0" /></p><p>We can test the significance of the factors using an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA).&nbsp; &nbsp;Refer to Montgomery, Peck and Vining (2006).&nbsp;&nbsp; Let SS<sub>T</sub> be the total sum of squares.&nbsp;&nbsp; That is:</p><p><img height="43" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/Gijo_Sum.jpg" width="125" border="0" /></p><p>where Y<sub>i</sub> is the response on experiment i and ybar is the average response over the 8 experiments.&nbsp;&nbsp; That is, SS<sub>T</sub> is the sum of the 8 squared deviations between the experiment responses and the average response.&nbsp;&nbsp; The value of ybar is 49.582, and the value of SS<sub>T</sub> is 118.151.&nbsp;&nbsp; Then we partition SS<sub>T</sub> into a sum of squares due to the estimated effects (SS<sub>R</sub>) and a sum of squared deviations from the estimated effects (SS<sub>RES</sub>).&nbsp; That is, SS<sub>T</sub> = SS<sub>R</sub> + SS<sub>RES</sub>. &nbsp;The value of SS<sub>R</sub> is the same as a sum of squares due to an estimated regression function when we have a two-level experiment. &nbsp;&nbsp;Consider the contribution of factor A to SS<sub>R</sub>.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The posting on 9/18/2008 gives the estimated effect of factor A to be -6.067.&nbsp; That is the difference between the average of the responses at the low values of factor A and the high values of factor A.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Thus the estimated average response at the high values of factor A is ybar - 6.067/2 = 46.5485.&nbsp; Similarly, the estimated average response at the low values of factor A is &nbsp;ybar + 6.067/2 &nbsp;= 52.6155.&nbsp;&nbsp; The deviation between the mean response and the effect of A conditioned on whether A is high or low is 6.067/2.&nbsp;&nbsp; Since we have 8 experiments, the contribution of factor A to SS<sub>R</sub> is 8*(6.067/2)<sup>2</sup> = 73.60788.&nbsp;&nbsp; For factor D and the interaction effect AC, the corresponding contributions to SS<sub>R</sub> are 18.67308 and 11.38575.&nbsp;&nbsp; Thus, SS<sub>R</sub> is 103.6667.&nbsp;&nbsp; The value of SS<sub>RES</sub> is SS<sub>T</sub> &ndash; SS<sub>R</sub> = 14.48432.&nbsp; We can test whether these three factors are statistically significant using the F statistic.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The F statistic assumes that the individual responses have a normal distribution.&nbsp;&nbsp; The F statistic is:</p><p><img height="40" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/Gijo_F.jpg" width="150" border="0" /></p>where df<sub>R</sub> = degrees of freedom for SS<sub>R</sub> = 3 (the number of factors),<br />df<sub>RES</sub> = degrees of freedom for SS<sub>RES</sub> = 8-1-3 = 4 (we loose one degree of freedom due to estimating the mean and 3 due to estimating the 3 factor effects.<br />We can tell whether this value of F is statistically significant by calculating its PValue.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The PValue is the probability of obtaining this value of F, i.e., 9.543, or higher by chance when the factor effects have at true value of zero.&nbsp;&nbsp; The PValue for this F is .027.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Usually, we regard a PValue as statistically significant when it is less than .05.&nbsp;&nbsp; Thus the factors A, D and AC are statistically significant.&nbsp;&nbsp; If we attempt to add a forth factor, i.e., AB,&nbsp; the PValue becomes .0625; thus, we do not include AB.&nbsp; <br /><p>Higher values of the response S/N are desirable.&nbsp;&nbsp; Thus, the low value of factor A (feed rate of .0008 mm/Revolution) and the low value of factor D (wheel grade of A54) are preferred. &nbsp;Since the low value (-1) of the interaction effect AC is preferred, we select the high value of factor C which is a work speed of 360 RPM.&nbsp;&nbsp; For the insignificant factor, the team chose its low value ( a wheel speed of 2200 RPM).<br /></p><p>The posting on 2/28/2008 reports that the preferred factor levels specified above improved the process performance index (P<sub>pk</sub>) from .49 to 1.25.&nbsp;&nbsp; This is based on a sample of 40 parts.&nbsp;&nbsp; The posting on 5/1/2008 defines the process capability index C<sub>pk</sub>.&nbsp;&nbsp; Process capability indices assume the process is stable.&nbsp;&nbsp; When we have insufficient evidence the process is stable, we call the capability index a performance index and use the same equation.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /></p><p><strong>References<br /></strong></p><ol><li><div>Montgomery, Douglas C., Elizabeth Peck, Geoffrey Vining (2006). <u>Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis</u>, John Wiley &amp; Sons, p26.</div></li></ol>]]></description>
         <link>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/10/design_of_experiments_grinding_3.html</link>
         <guid>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/10/design_of_experiments_grinding_3.html</guid>
         <category>Designed Experiments</category>
         <pubDate>Thu, 16 Oct 2008 22:01:44 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Design of Experiments: Grinding Process Example (Part 3)</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>This posting continues the grinding process case study (Gigo, 2008) that illustrates the use of design and analysis of experiments to reduce common-cause variation.&nbsp; We examine the properties of the experimental design reported by Gijo.&nbsp;&nbsp; The examination illustrates the potential for aliasing in an experimental design and shows how it can bias the results.&nbsp;&nbsp; The experimental design described by Gijo uses an orthogonal array which Taguchi recommended.&nbsp;&nbsp; We contrast the properties of that design with a standard fractional factorial.</p><p>The <a title="September Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/09/" target="_self">9/15/2008</a> posting initiated the design of experiments portion of the case study.&nbsp; The primary purpose of the experimental design was to reduce the variation in the outer diameter produced by a grinding operation.&nbsp;&nbsp; That posting reports that the team was primarily interested in estimating the following effects:<br /></p><p>A &ndash; Feed Rate<br />B &ndash; Wheel Speed<br />C &ndash; Work Speed<br />D &ndash; Wheel Grade<br />AB &ndash; Interaction between A and B<br />AC - Interaction between A and C<br /></p><p>Gijo states that the experimental design was developed using an L<sub>8</sub> orthogonal array.&nbsp; He references Phadke (1989) for use of orthogonal arrays to construct designs.&nbsp;&nbsp; Taguchi made extensive use of orthogonal arrays in constructing robust designs.&nbsp; Hicks and Turner (1999, p381) give a table for using an L<sub>8</sub> orthogonal array to construct a design with the desired properties.&nbsp;&nbsp; That is, we do not want the A, B, C, D, AB, and AC effects aliased with each other.&nbsp;&nbsp; Two effects that have the same estimator are aliased.&nbsp; The previous posting on September 15 gives the design and estimates of the factor effects.&nbsp;&nbsp; Clearly the design meets the desired criterion since the factor effect estimates are all different.</p><p><br />However, consider the estimates of the of the BC, BD and CD interaction effects shown in the following table.<br /></p><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1"><tr><td valign="top" width="185"><strong>Experiment<br /></strong></td><td valign="top" width="185"><strong>Response<br /></strong><strong>(S/N)<br /></strong></td><td valign="top" width="185"><strong>Wheel Speed X Work Speed (BC)<br /></strong></td><td valign="top" width="185"><strong>Wheel Speed X Wheel Grade (BD)<br /></strong></td><td valign="top" width="185"><strong>Work Speed X Wheel Grade (CD)<br /></strong></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="185"><p>1</p></td><td valign="bottom" width="185">53.4692</td><td valign="top" width="185">+1<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">+1<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">+1<br /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="185"><p>2</p></td><td valign="bottom" width="185">50.9704</td><td valign="top" width="185">-1<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">-1<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">+1<br /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="185"><p>3</p></td><td valign="bottom" width="185">49.0298<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">-1<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">+1<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">-1<br /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="185"><p>4</p></td><td valign="bottom" width="185">56.991<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">+1<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">-1<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">-1<br /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="185"><p>5</p></td><td valign="bottom" width="185">49.0298<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">+1<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">+1<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">+1<br /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="185"><p>6</p></td><td valign="bottom" width="185">46.1079</td><td valign="top" width="185">-1<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">-1<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">+1<br /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="185"><p>7</p></td><td valign="bottom" width="185">46.1079</td><td valign="top" width="185">-1<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">+1<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">-1<br /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="185"><p>8</p></td><td valign="bottom" width="185">44.9483</td><td valign="top" width="185">+1<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">-1<br /></td><td valign="top" width="185">-1<br /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="185"><strong>Effect<br /></strong></td><td valign="top" width="185"><p>&nbsp;</p></td><td valign="top" width="185"><strong>3.056</strong></td><td valign="top" width="185"><strong>-0.345</strong></td><td valign="top" width="185"><strong>0.625<br /></strong></td></tr></table><p>Note that the BC interaction effect is exactly equal to the negative of the D effect, the BD interaction effect is equal to the negative of the C effect and the CD interaction effect equals the negative of the B effect.&nbsp; That is true because the sequences of +1 and -1s in the BC, BD and CD columns are precisely the negatives of those in the D, C and B columns.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; With this design, the BC and D effects are aliased.&nbsp;&nbsp; That is, if the BC effect is not zero, then our estimate of the D effect is affected by the BC effect.&nbsp;&nbsp; Similarly, the BD effect estimate is aliased with the C effect, and the CD effect is aliased with the B effect.&nbsp; Then this design provides no information on whether the BC, BD and CD interaction effects are negligible.&nbsp;&nbsp; Also, this design can give a biased estimate of the D effect if the BC interaction defect is significant. <br /></p><p>Montgomery (2005, p. 288) gives a standard one-half fraction of the 2<sup>4</sup> factorial design.&nbsp;&nbsp; Call it the 2<sup>4-1</sup> design.&nbsp; This design uses 8 experiments and has four factors.&nbsp;&nbsp; The properties of this design are:<br />&middot;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Estimates of the main effects are not aliased with any two-factor interactions.<br />&middot;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Estimates of the main effects are aliased with three factor interactions.<br />&middot;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Every two factor interaction is aliased with another two factor interaction.&nbsp;&nbsp; That is AB=CD, AC=BD and BC=AD.<br /></p><p>The 2<sup>4-1</sup> design might be superior to the one described by Gijo.&nbsp;&nbsp; Estimates of the A, B, C and D effects are not aliased with any two factor interaction.&nbsp; Also, estimates of the AB and AC effects are not aliased with a main effect.</p><p><br />The next posting will present results from the experimental design.<br /></p><p><strong>References<br /></strong></p><ol><li>Gijo, E. V. (2005). &quot;Improving Process Capability of Manufacturing Process by Application of Statistical Techniques.&quot; <u>Quality Engineering</u> <strong>17</strong>(2): 309-315.</li><li>Hicks, Charles R. and Kenneth V. Turner Jr. (1999).&nbsp; <u>Fundamental Concepts in the Design of Experiments</u>, Oxford University Press.</li><li>Montgomery, Douglas C. (2005). <u>Design and Analysis of Experiments, 6<sup>th</sup> Edition,</u> John Wiley &amp; Sons, Inc.</li><li>Phadke, Madhav S. (1989). <u>&nbsp;Quality Engineering Using Robust Design</u>, Prentice Hall.</li></ol>]]></description>
         <link>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/10/design_of_experiments_grinding_2.html</link>
         <guid>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/10/design_of_experiments_grinding_2.html</guid>
         <category>Designed Experiments</category>
         <pubDate>Mon, 06 Oct 2008 20:51:11 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Design of Experiments: Grinding Process Example (Part 2)</title>
         <description><![CDATA[This posting continues the grinding process case study (Gigo, 2008) that illustrates the use of design and analysis of experiments to reduce common-cause variation.&nbsp; The 9/15/2008 posting initiated the design of experiments portion of the case study.<br /><p>The response variable was a measure of the variability of the outer diameter of the machined components.&nbsp;&nbsp; One could use the estimated variance, i.e. s<sup>2</sup>, for each set of experimental conditions.&nbsp;&nbsp; That is, one would replicate the experiment for each set of experimental conditions and estimate s<sup>2</sup>.&nbsp; Gijo chose to use -10*ln(s<sup>2</sup>).&nbsp;&nbsp; He lets the symbol S/N represent the -10*ln(s<sup>2</sup>).&nbsp; Could S/N mean that the response is a Taguchi signal-to-noise ratio?&nbsp;&nbsp; Montgomery (2005, p. 469) discourages the use of signal-to-noise ratios.&nbsp;&nbsp; He states that a more effective approach is to model the mean and variance separately.&nbsp;&nbsp; Hunter (1987) comes to the same conclusion.&nbsp;&nbsp; Gijo does not justify the use of S/N other than a reference to the 3<sup>rd</sup> edition of Montgomery&rsquo;s book.</p><p>A response variable that has a constant variance over the set of experimental conditions facilitates regression analyses of the results.&nbsp;&nbsp; Montgomery (2005, p. 83) recommends the use of the logarithmic transformation when the standard deviation of the response is proportional to its mean.&nbsp;&nbsp; Let&rsquo;s proceed by assuming the team used S/N since they wanted to estimate the contribution of the selected factors to the variance of the outer diameter and the standard deviation was roughly proportional to the mean.</p><p>The following table gives the experimental design and the observed response for each experiment.&nbsp;&nbsp; The team replicated the experiment twice for each set of experimental conditions.&nbsp;&nbsp; From the two observed outer diameters, they calculated a variance estimate, i.e., s<sup>2</sup>, and from that computed the response value S/N. &nbsp;The -1 and +1 symbols represent the lower and higher levels of the respective factors.&nbsp; </p><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1"><tr><td valign="top" width="123"><p><strong>Experiment</strong></p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p><strong>Feed Rate (A)</strong></p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p><strong>Wheel Speed (B)</strong></p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p><strong>Work Speed (C)</strong></p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p><strong>Wheel Grade (D)</strong></p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p><strong>Response</strong></p><p><strong>(S/N)</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="123"><p>1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>-1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>-1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>-1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>-1</p></td><td valign="bottom" width="123">53.4692<br /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="123"><p>2</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>-1 </p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>-1 </p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="bottom" width="123">50.9704<br /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="123"><p>3</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>-1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>-1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="bottom" width="123">49.0298</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="123"><p>4</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>-1 </p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>-1</p></td><td valign="bottom" width="123">56.991<br /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="123"><p>5</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>-1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>-1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>-1 </p></td><td valign="bottom" width="123">49.0298</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="123"><p>6</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>-1 </p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="bottom" width="123">46.1079</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="123"><p>7</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>-1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="bottom" width="123">46.1079</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="123"><p>8</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="top" width="123"><p>-1</p></td><td valign="bottom" width="123">44.9483</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="123"><p><strong>Effect</strong></p></td><td valign="bottom" width="123"><strong>-6.067</strong></td><td valign="bottom" width="123"><strong>-0.625</strong></td><td valign="bottom" width="123"><strong><strong>0.345</strong></strong></td><td valign="bottom" width="123"><strong>-3.056</strong><br /></td><td valign="bottom" width="123">&nbsp;</td></tr></table><p>Montgomery (2005, p208) shows how to calculate the average factor effects using the -1 and +1 coding.&nbsp; For a single factor effect, we sum the products of the factor coding times the experiment response over all experiments.&nbsp;&nbsp; Then we divide the sum by the number of -1, +1 pairs.&nbsp;&nbsp; In this experiment, the number of pairs is 4.&nbsp;&nbsp; The last row in the above table shows the estimated factor effects.&nbsp;&nbsp; For an interaction effect, we multiply the experiment coding for each factor to get a coding for the interaction effect.</p><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1"><tr><td valign="top" width="246"><p><strong>Experiment</strong></p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p><strong>Feed Rate X Wheel Speed</strong></p><p><strong>AB</strong></p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p><strong>Feed Rate X Work Speed</strong></p><p><strong>AC</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="246"><p>1</p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p>+1</p></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="246"><p>2</p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p>-1</p></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="246"><p>3</p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p>-1</p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p>+1</p></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="246"><p>4</p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p>-1</p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p>-1</p></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="246"><p>5</p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p>-1</p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p>-1</p></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="246"><p>6</p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p>-1</p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p>+1</p></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="246"><p>7</p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p>-1</p></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="246"><p>8</p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p>+1</p></td><td valign="top" width="246"><p>+1</p></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="246"><p><strong>Effect</strong></p></td><td valign="bottom" width="246"><strong>-1.416</strong></td><td valign="bottom" width="246"><strong>-2.386</strong></td></tr></table><p>Notice that the estimated AB and AC interaction effects are larger than the single factor B and C effects.</p><p>The next posting will examine the properties of the experimental design.</p><p><strong>References<br /></strong></p><ol><li>Gijo, E. V. (2005). &quot;Improving Process Capability of Manufacturing Process by Application of Statistical Techniques.&quot; <u>Quality Engineering</u> <strong>17</strong>(2): 309-315.</li><li>Hunter, J. S. (1987). &quot;Signal-to-Noise Ratio Debated.&quot; <u>Quality Progress</u> <strong>20</strong>(5): 7-9.</li><li>Montgomery, Douglas C. (2005). <u>Design and Analysis of Experiments, 6<sup>th</sup> Edition,</u> John Wiley &amp; Sons, Inc.</li></ol>]]></description>
         <link>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/09/design_of_experiments_grinding_1.html</link>
         <guid>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/09/design_of_experiments_grinding_1.html</guid>
         <category>Designed Experiments</category>
         <pubDate>Thu, 18 Sep 2008 21:13:42 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Design of Experiments: Grinding Process Example (Part 1)</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>This posting describes a grinding process case study to illustrate the use of design and analysis of experiments to study cause and effect and reduce common-cause variation.&nbsp; We continue the case study reported by Gijo (2005) in the <a title="February Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/02/" target="_self">2/28/2005</a> posting.&nbsp;&nbsp; That posting describes the construction of a cause-and-effect diagram by a team in an engineering organization identify potential causes of low grinding machine capability.&nbsp; The team selected four factors for further analysis based on designed experiments.&nbsp;&nbsp; These factors were Feed Rate, Wheel Speed, Work Speed, and Wheel Grade.&nbsp; The team chose to perform experiments using two levels for each factor.&nbsp;&nbsp; The following table shows the levels and factors selected for experimentation.&nbsp; The levels with an * were existing operating levels.</p><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1"><tr><td valign="top" width="148"><strong>Factor<br /></strong></td><td valign="top" width="148"><strong>Code<br /></strong></td><td valign="top" width="148"><strong>Low Level (-1)<br /></strong></td><td valign="top" width="148"><strong>High Level (+1)<br /></strong></td><td valign="top" width="148"><strong>Unit<br /></strong></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="148"><p>Feed rate</p></td><td valign="top" width="148"><p>A</p></td><td valign="top" width="148"><p>.0008*</p></td><td valign="top" width="148"><p>.0010</p></td><td valign="top" width="148"><p>Mm/Rev</p></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="148"><p>Wheel speed</p></td><td valign="top" width="148"><p>B</p></td><td valign="top" width="148"><p>2200</p></td><td valign="top" width="148"><p>2450*</p></td><td valign="top" width="148"><p>RPM</p></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="148"><p>Work speed</p></td><td valign="top" width="148"><p>C</p></td><td valign="top" width="148"><p>250*</p></td><td valign="top" width="148"><p>360</p></td><td valign="top" width="148"><p>RPM</p></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="148"><p>Wheel grade</p></td><td valign="top" width="148"><p>D</p></td><td valign="top" width="148"><p>A54</p></td><td valign="top" width="148"><p>A60*</p></td><td valign="top" width="148"><p>&nbsp;-</p></td></tr></table><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Experimental design terminology defines the effect of a factor as the change in the response produced by a change in the level of the factor.&nbsp;&nbsp; Assume that the response in this experiment is the variance of the outer diameter measurements.&nbsp;&nbsp; For example, if increasing the feed rate from .0008 to .0010 mm/revolution increases the variance of the outer diameter by .003 mm<sup>2</sup> then the feed-rate (factor A) effect is .003 mm<sup>2</sup>.&nbsp; When the difference in response to a factor level change is not the same at all levels of another factor, an interaction effect exists between the factors. &nbsp;&nbsp;The factor A effect might be .003 mm<sup>2</sup> when the wheel speed is 2200 rpm and .005 mm<sup>2</sup> when the wheel speed (factor B) is 2400 rpm, then an interaction effect exists between factors A and B.&nbsp;&nbsp; The magnitude of the interaction effect is the average difference between the two A effects.&nbsp;&nbsp; Thus the AxB interaction effect is (.005-.003)/2 = .001 mm<sup>2</sup>.</p><p>The team selected an experimental design the enables them to estimate the effects of the four factors in the above table.&nbsp;&nbsp; They also wanted to estimate two interaction effects: 1. (AxB) between Feed Rate and Wheel Speed (AxB) and 2. (AxC) between Feed Rate and Work Speed. &nbsp;The linear graph shown below depicts the effects the experimental design must be capable of estimating.&nbsp; That is, the A, B, C and D effects, the AxB and AxC interaction effects and the error variance.</p><p><img height="250" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/Gijo_Linear_Graph.jpg" width="480" border="0" /></p><p>The next posting will describe the experimental design.&nbsp; </p><p><strong>References<br /></strong></p><ol><li>Gijo, E. V. (2005). &quot;Improving Process Capability of Manufacturing Process by Application of Statistical Techniques.&quot; <u>Quality Engineering</u> <strong>17</strong>(2): 309-315.</li></ol>]]></description>
         <link>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/09/design_of_experiments_grinding.html</link>
         <guid>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/09/design_of_experiments_grinding.html</guid>
         <category>Designed Experiments</category>
         <pubDate>Mon, 15 Sep 2008 21:09:40 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Simulation Model Building</title>
         <description><![CDATA[This posting illustrates the use of model building to study cause and effect and reduce common-cause variation.&nbsp; One approach to model building is to build a model such as a regression model based on either results from an experimental design or observed process data.&nbsp; Another approach illustrated in this posting is to construct a simulation model based on the system flow chart or process map.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; One application of a simulation model is to predict flow times or service times for complex systems.&nbsp;&nbsp; In service or health system applications customer service or wait times could be useful quality measures.&nbsp;&nbsp; One uses the simulation model by varying input variables such as the number of servers to predict their effect on customer service times.<br /><p>Davies (2007) describes a case study involving the treatment of minor injuries and medical problems in an emergency department in England.&nbsp;&nbsp; Receptionists route arriving patients with minor injuries or medical conditions are routed to the &ldquo;Minors&rdquo; department.&nbsp;&nbsp; The standard processing procedure has receptionists in the Minors department assign patients to a queue for triage nurses who assess the patient condition and needs.&nbsp;&nbsp; Then the triage nurse routes the patients to a doctor or nurse for treatment.&nbsp;&nbsp; The nurses are qualified to assess and treat minor injuries but not to handle minor medical conditions which are handled by doctors.&nbsp;&nbsp; These nurses are Emergency Nurse Practitioners (EPNs).&nbsp; Call this procedure &ldquo;See&rdquo; and &ldquo;Treat&rdquo;.&nbsp;&nbsp; The UK national health service recommended that emergency departments skip the triage nurse step.&nbsp;&nbsp; The health service recommended that receptionists route patients to a doctor or ENP for diagnosis and treatment.&nbsp; Call this procedure &ldquo;See &amp; Treat&rdquo;.&nbsp;&nbsp; The intent was to reduce patient system time by eliminating a step and its associated queuing time. &nbsp;&nbsp;The following figure depicts the &ldquo;See &amp; Treat&rdquo; patient flow. </p><p><img height="250" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/See_Treat.jpg" width="480" border="0" /></p><p>Davies describes a simulation model for comparing the two procedures.&nbsp;&nbsp; This model represents the processing of individual patients, their waiting times, and individual task processing times.&nbsp;&nbsp; Inputs to the model would include distributions for task times, distributions for times between patient arrivals, and the numbers of doctors and EPNs. &nbsp;The following figure presents some of the simulation results.&nbsp;&nbsp; The new procedure &ldquo;See &amp; Treat&rdquo; that eliminates the triage step gives the lowest system time.</p><p><img height="250" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/Sim_Results.jpg" width="475" border="0" /><br /></p><p><strong>References<br /></strong></p><ol><li>Davies, R. (2007). &quot;See and Treat&quot; or &quot;See&quot; and &quot;Treat&quot; in an Emergency Department. <u>2007 Winter Simulation Conference</u>. Washington, DC.<br /></li></ol><p><br />&nbsp;</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/09/simulation_model_building.html</link>
         <guid>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/09/simulation_model_building.html</guid>
         <category>Model Building</category>
         <pubDate>Tue, 09 Sep 2008 18:54:01 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Multi-Vari Chart</title>
         <description><![CDATA[This posting describes the Multi-Vari Chart which is a tool for use in the seventh step, Study Cause and Effect, of the Hoerl-Snee Process Improvement Strategy.&nbsp; The posting defines the chart and illustrates its use.<br /><p>The Multi-Vari Chart graphically shows variation of a quality characteristic for multiple factors.&nbsp;&nbsp; The purpose of the chart is to permit identification of the factor or factors having the greatest effect on variability.<br /></p><p>Recall the example in the previous posting taken from Breyfogle (2003, page 389). &nbsp;An injection molding process produced plastic cylindrical connectors.&nbsp;&nbsp; The example included data from a sample of two parts collected hourly from four mold cavities for three hours consisting of measurements at three locations on the parts.&nbsp; The three locations are bottom, middle, and top.&nbsp; We want to display the variability by location, cavity and part.&nbsp; The following figure shows averages over the three hours by location, cavity and part.&nbsp;&nbsp; The figure shows that cavities 2,3 and 4 had larger diameters at the ends (top and bottom) while cavity 1 had a taper.&nbsp;&nbsp; Thus, cavity and location have an interacting effect.</p><p><img height="250" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/Multi-Vari_Chart%20.jpg" width="480" border="0" /></p>In this example,<strong> </strong>the Multi-Vari chart showed interactions among categories affecting variability.&nbsp;&nbsp; In the previous posting, the Box Plot shows variation within a category, i.e., a cavit. <strong><br /></strong><p><strong>References<br /></strong></p><ol><li>Breyfogle, F. W. (2003). <u>Implementing Six Sigma</u>. Hoboken, New Jersey, John Wiley &amp; Sons, Inc.<br /></li></ol>]]></description>
         <link>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/07/multivari_chart.html</link>
         <guid>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/07/multivari_chart.html</guid>
         <category>Multi-Vari Chart</category>
         <pubDate>Sun, 27 Jul 2008 20:57:36 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Box Plot</title>
         <description><![CDATA[This posting describes the Box Plot (Box-and-whiskers plot) which is a tool for use in the seventh step, Study Cause and Effect, of the Hoerl-Snee Process Improvement Strategy. &nbsp;The posting defines the plot and illustrates its use.&nbsp;&nbsp; The Box Plot shows certain aspects of the distribution of data.&nbsp; By classifying the data into categories, one can construct a Box Plot for each category and observe distributional differences among the categories.&nbsp;&nbsp; These differences may reveal categories or factors that are increasing (or reducing) variability. <br /><p>To illustrate the Box Plot, we refer to an example given by Breyfogle (2003, page 389).&nbsp; An injection molding process produced plastic cylindrical connectors.&nbsp;&nbsp; Breyfogle presents data from a sample of two parts collected hourly from four mold cavities for three hours consisting of measurements at three locations on the parts.&nbsp;&nbsp; The Box Plot for the aggregated data appears below.&nbsp; </p><p><img height="300" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/Boxplot_1.jpg" width="462" border="0" /></p>The plot portrays key distribution characteristics as shown in the figure. &nbsp;Twenty-five percent of the data are less than or equal to Q<sub>1</sub>, half of the data are less than or equal to the median, and seventy-five percent of the data are less than or equal to Q<sub>3</sub>.&nbsp; The vertical lines are whiskers.&nbsp;&nbsp; Call Q<sub>1</sub> the 25<sup>th</sup> percentile, Q<sub>3</sub> the 75<sup>th</sup> percentile, and the median the 50<sup>th</sup> percentile. The lower whisker extends to the lower limit which is Q<sub>1</sub> &ndash; 1.5(Q<sub>3 </sub>- Q<sub>1</sub>), and the upper whisker extends to the upper limit which is Q<sub>3</sub> + 1.5(Q<sub>3 </sub>- Q<sub>1</sub>).&nbsp;&nbsp; Values beyond the upper and lower limits are outliers and shown as asterisks (*).<br />&nbsp;<br />The following figure illustrates the use of Box Plots to identify categories increasing variability and degrading quality.&nbsp;&nbsp; Mold cavity 1 produces diameters greater than cavities 2, 3 and 4.&nbsp; The 25<sup>th</sup> percentile for mold cavity 1 diameters is greater than the 75<sup>th</sup> percentiles for mold cavities 2,3 and 4.<br /><p><img height="300" src="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/Images/Boxplot_4.jpg" width="480" border="0" /></p><strong>References<br /></strong><ol><li>Breyfogle, F. W. (2003). <u>Implementing Six Sigma</u>. Hoboken, New Jersey, John Wiley &amp; Sons, Inc.<br /></li></ol>]]></description>
         <link>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/07/box_plot.html</link>
         <guid>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/07/box_plot.html</guid>
         <category>Box Plot</category>
         <pubDate>Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:24:39 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Interrelationship Digraph Source</title>
         <description><![CDATA[This posting gives the background and source of the interrelationship digraph.&nbsp;&nbsp; It differentiates this source from the &lsquo;Seven major SPC Tools&rsquo; and the &lsquo;Magnificent Seven&rsquo;.<br /><p>GOAL/QPC, an educational consulting company, noticed a new book proposing seven new QC tools.&nbsp;&nbsp; This book (Mizuno, 1988) was eventually translated into English.&nbsp; GOAL/QPC created the Memory Jogger Plus+ (Brassard, 1989) featuring these new tools.&nbsp; They called these new tools the &lsquo;Seven Management and Planning Tools&rsquo; to differentiate them from the &lsquo;Seven Major SPC Tools&rsquo;.&nbsp;&nbsp; The Seven Management and Planning Tools are:<br /></p><ol><li>Affinity diagram<br /></li><li>Interrelationship digraph<br /></li><li>Tree diagram<br /></li><li>Prioritization matrices<br /></li><li>Matrix diagram<br /></li><li>Process decision program chart (PDPC)<br /></li><li>Activity network diagram<br /></li></ol><p>Montgomery (2005, page 148) identifies &lsquo;Seven Major SPC Tools&rsquo;.&nbsp; He calls them the &lsquo;Magnificent Seven&rsquo;.&nbsp; They are:<br /></p><ol><li>Histogram (<a title="March Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/03/" target="_self">3/25/2008</a> and <a title="May Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/05/" target="_self">5/1/2008</a> postings) or stem-and-leaf plot<br /></li><li>Check sheet<br /></li><li>Pareto chart (<a title="Feb. 2008 Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/02/" target="_self">2/25/2008</a> and <a title="May Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/05/" target="_self">5/18/2008</a> postings)<br /></li><li>Cause and effect diagram (<a title="Feb. 2008 Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/02/" target="_self">2/28/2008</a> posting)<br /></li><li>Defect concentration diagram<br /></li><li>Scatter diagram (<a title="March 2008 Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/03/" target="_self">3/28/2008</a> posting)<br /></li><li>Control chart (<a title="Jan. 2008 Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/01/" target="_self">1/30/2008</a>, <a title="Feb. 2008 Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/02/" target="_self">2/11/2008</a>, <a title="Feb. 2008 Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/02/" target="_self">2/14/2008</a>, and <a title="April 2008 Postings" href="http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/04/" target="_self">4/1/2008</a> postings)<br /></li></ol>The implication is that we can perform SPC in most cases using these tools.<br /><p>Earlier, Ishikawa (1985) identified &lsquo;Seven Major TQM&rsquo; (Total Quality Management) tools.&nbsp;&nbsp; They are:<br /></p><ol><li>Histogram<br /></li><li>Flowchart<br /></li><li>Pareto chart<br /></li><li>Cause and effect diagram<br /></li><li>Run charts and graphs<br /></li><li>Scatter diagram<br /></li><li>X-bar and R control charts<br /></li></ol>Ishikawa also felt that the above tools would support most TQM projects. <br /><p>One could say that Montgomery replaced the &lsquo;flowchart&rsquo; and &lsquo;run charts and graphs&rsquo; with the &lsquo;check sheet&rsquo; and &lsquo;defect concentration diagram&rsquo;.&nbsp;&nbsp; Montgomery also generalized the X-bar and R control charts with all control charts.<br /></p><p><strong>References<br /></strong></p><ol><li>Brassard, M. (1989). <u>The Memory Jogger Plus+</u><u><sup>&acirc;</sup></u>. Salem, NH, Goal/QPC.</li><li>Mizuno, S. (1988). <u>Management for Quality Improvement: The Seven New QC Tools</u>. Cambridge, Productivity Press.</li></ol>]]></description>
         <link>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/07/interrelationship_digraph_sour.html</link>
         <guid>http://www4.asq.org/blogs/statistics/2008/07/interrelationship_digraph_sour.html</guid>
         <category>Interrelationship Digraphs</category>
         <pubDate>Tue, 15 Jul 2008 10:28:07 -0600</pubDate>
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