Tuesday Morning Keynote
by Dennis Arter
Jim Carroll talked about the future and how it is changing our profession. Although he didn't use the words, he presented Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns, where technologies are doubling in power every year. He gave several examples of this accelerating change:
- 65% of today's six-year olds will work in a job that doesn't presently exist,
- half of the technical knowledge a freshman engineering student learns will be obsolete by the time that student graduates,
- many of today's products have six-month life cycles
The second half of his talk focused on five effects of this rapid change:
1. Idea instantaety, where news travels around the world in minutes (and bad news travels even faster),
2. Scientific rapidity, where we have less available time to assess quality due to ever increasing complexity,
3. Hyperconnectivity, which can result in exponential risk several layers down the supply chain,
4. Workforce risk, where today's employees have different reward drivers,
5. Volitility, where everything seems to be moving and changing
Jim closed by suggesting that we need to
Observe everything around us.
Think about the changes.
Change how we approach a task.
Dare to experiment with something new.
Banish fear and disincentives.
Try new things.
Question the established ways.
Grow your knowledge base.
Do something new.
Enjoy the ride!
Today marks my last day at the conference. Tomorow, I am teaching auditing classes north of here by Universal City, for the rest of the week.
Dennis Arter, WorldCon blogger
